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| What
is the difference between a healthy British economy and the current
crisis? |
Beginning
with a conclusion isn't the norm, but on this occasion I will start
with
a summary of answers to the question above. The list below applies to
the last 3 decades, but especially from 1997 to the present day.
| Healthy
economy |
Crisis,
downturn, recession |
| Unlimited mortgage lending to people who
cant afford it. Incite rampant property speculation. |
Much less mortgage lending than before,
hope that the property buying returns. |
| Uncontrollable speculation in shares and
financial instruments. |
Much less speculation in shares and
financial instruments. |
| Little manufacturing and export, get the
Chinese to do it for you. |
Even less manufacturing and export. |
| Have
the media show people a share index chart that is adjusted to make it
appear that prices goes up in the long term when in reality
they
go down. |
Continue to show them the same chart, which
although
adjusted to go up, goes down anyway. Tell them that this is
temporary, shares always go up in the long run i.e. lie. |
| Tell people that house prices are rising
and that rather than every
pound being worth less than it was before, this means that you are now
better off than when each pound was worth more. |
Cut
interest rates in order to get more people to take out mortgages that
they can't afford on massively over priced property, at the same time
that the currency is collapsing. |
In the UK, an awful lot
of people are unemployed and have been for a
long time. If this is the
case, why have they received so little attention for so long, but when
somebody is
made redundant at a bank it is some kind of national disaster?
Although it is true that for some individuals there is a new, shocking
unemployment crisis, on a national scale there is no such thing,
because it was already here since decades ago.
Do
you know what business
this person's employer and other banks were in?
- Mortgage
lending to people that couldn't afford it on the assumption
that
perpetual house price inflation meant that they couldn't lose.
- Encouraging
people who couldn't afford it to take out credit cards that would mean
that they were indebted for life. As long as they made the minimum
payments the bank was raking in the interest.
- Speculating
in financial markets, commodities and various exotic
financial instruments, hedge funds.
Well
they did lose, because funnily enough people defaulted when they
found themselves deep underwater. The banks then expected the public to
provide them with payments of hundreds of billions of pounds to
secure the wages and bonuses of over paid Chief Executives and a few
other employees. It is not the norm for these employees to either make
themselves redundant or work without pay because they performed so
badly at their job.
Many firms have
been run over a long time in a way that didn't make profit for the
firm, but secured high wages and benefits for the Chief Executive. They
are having a good time at the moment because they can use the media
hype over the "downturn" to avoid having to take all the blame, and
even
ask for government help. Let me show you an example of the kind of
thing that became the norm. Have a look at this.
You will note that this company, which still exists
today with a
different name, has something called EBITDA in its accounts.
That
means Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortisation. In
plain English to you and me, it means "we don't make any profit".
It also has an "exceptional non cash charge" of over £1
billion.
In plain English to you and me that means "we lost a shed load of
money".
This
has been repeated many times over with some of the biggest
household names in multi national companies which many people have long
believed are super successful and profit making. Not making money
became
almost the norm. It is nothing to do with the downturn, credit
crisis or
whatever else you want to call it. It is bad management by people who
didn't care or lacked the skills and knowledge to do the job correctly.
I
can remember this time period very clearly. This particular firm
announced a rights issue of shares, which resulted in the share rising
very rapidly. What they were doing was asking for people do give them
more money because they were up the creek without a paddle.
Would
you be pleased and want to buy shares in a company that
was debt
laden with no prospects of future profit? This is the whole nature and
purpose of the Stock Market and why it is so useful to a firm to be
listed so that it can turn to gullible people to bail out the company
i.e. secure Chief Executive pay.
Further to this, for the
purposes of illustration of the way finance works, I have tried to find
a list of the original FTSE
100 companies, but I can't seem to find one. I don't actually know the
original date of when it started, but it was certainly a long time ago.
However,
it is not necessary to go back that far to see an example
of how it is adjusted to make it appear much higher than it
really
is. What you need to understand is that the vast majority of these
companies lost all of their share value or no
longer exist. What does that mean? Well it means that if you had
"invested" £1000 back in the good old days when £1000 was
worth
about 1 trillion of today's pounds, you would have almost non of it
left. That is the reality of shares, they lose most or all of their
value over the long term, but serve the purpose of allowing non profit
making firms to continue in business for a lot longer than they would
otherwise.
Perhaps
you have seen an advertisement on the television asking you to report
"benefit thieves"? Perhaps you have read a story about "scroungers"
living in an extra large and luxurious council house ? Why do these
people receive such attention when there are others who are
theoretically working for a living but in reality are responsible for
costing the state millions of times more. Such reports are intended to
create resentment among those who are limited in their
thinking
and easily swayed by propaganda. This in turn helps to
subjugate the majority and benefit the ruling elite.
I
don't know where these people went to learn their
trade but it is basic economics that inflation and debt is BAD.
House prices falling is not bad, the real crisis is that all
this
happened in the first place, we are just returning to equilibrium and
it
will be a slow process. Sending interest rates to near zero
to try to resurrect disastrously out of control borrowing cannot
possibly work, it will simply collapse the currency even further.
The new "high liquidity" proposal
that is in the works is also a very bad idea. When the house is on fire
you are wise to choose water over
petrol if you want to extinguish it.
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