| I
haven't really written one, but I will think about it if I can find
time outside of pursuing my demanding contract with the DWP. In the
meantime let's have a look at what information I do have available.
In 2004 approximately 8
million
people were unemployed in the UK if you don't use the government's
official measure, which is to only include people willing and able to
satisfy the Jobseeker's Allowance rules. If you want to
measure unemployment accurately, you have to include all people who are
not working. Even this figure doesn't include everyone. Therefore
the New Deal doesn't even address the majority of unemployed people, so
by its nature any information about it's usefulness is inaccurate.
Here are some pdf files of relevant research about New deal. I'll let
you decide about it's status of independence and accuracy on an
individual basis. Aspects that are discussed besides the obvious
include: -
the substitution effect e.g. a participant getting a job at the expense
of a non participant resulting in a net gain of zero. This is a fatal
flaw in any non job creation employment scheme, it doesn't have any
macroeconomic influence. Redistribution is the most you can hope to
gain from it.
- Jobeekers
signing off because they find it unacceptable, creating the illusion of
employment.
-
possible effects on wage levels. The theory of the wage effect is that
by putting pressure on people to look for work you can drive down wage
levels by increasing the supply of possible candidates for any given
job. That's real useful in a country that is experiencing massive
inflation, isn't it? When Pertemps try to get you to apply for a
minimum wage job they don't tell you how you will pay your £500+ a
month rent, or nearer double that if you want to take out a mortgage,
plus ever escalating food, fuel and £1300 council tax bills.
They
say it is unrealistic to expect more, but clearly it is they that are
being unrealistic by ignoring the fact that basic living costs are well
in excess of that level of pay. Do you think they prioritise your
interests or theirs? Ignoring a major issue doesn't make it go away.
Economic realities are difficult to argue with, and the current great
mystery is how we have ultra high inflation at the same time as
negligible wage increases. It doesn't add up. I believe it is
the
wage effect coupled with government pressure and propaganda.
A real problem is that studies of New Deal, just like the aims of the
programme itself, tend to be very short term in their analysis. They
define a sustained
job as 13 weeks in length. What? That alone demonstrates an immediate
limitation. You could be forgiven for thinking that the same number of
years might be a more fitting definition. Research
documents
As far as a more medium term evaluation
is concerned, in 2005 38%
of participants on New Deal nationally had attended the programme
before, therefore it didn't find them a job the first time round,
otherwise they wouldn't be there. In Kidderminster, the rate of return
to New Deal is 75%. I don't have any
written evidence
of that because it is my policy not to compromise the positions of
regular, low paid, conscientious workers. However, if anybody would
like to refute it, you are very welcome. If I ask an executive for the
information, chances are they will simply be unable or unwilling to do
so, delegating to someone else or just not bothering at all, which has
been demonstrated amply in the past. To put it in the simplest terms,
the likelihood is that I and the majority of attendees will be
returning to do it all over again. By May 2008 I could be
back
there. Do you think that they will be pleased to see me? Their contract
will be winding down then so I imagine they will be indifferent. Some
people think that New Deal is a work for your dole scheme, rather than
being aimed at finding you a job. Where did they ever get that idea?
The total cost
of New Deal between 1997 to 2006 was £3 billion. Let's hope all the
involuntary donors i.e. members of the public think it was worthwhile
and value for money. All
the DWP does is augment the supply of labour, by forcing people to
apply for jobs who otherwise would not do so, without increasing the
supply
of jobs. This is highly destructive to all non rich members of society,
increasing unemployment
and eroding wages. What they should be looking for is a high
ratio of jobs to units of labour. Observations of a field researcher
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